Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is up 4% on Friday as PCE inflation fell to 2.8%, oil prices dropped, $3 billion in options gamma triggered dealer hedging and ETF inflows hit four consecutive days.
PCE Inflation Falls Below Estimates
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index increased 2.8% year-over-year in January 2026, according to data released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Month-over-month, PCE rose 0.3%.
Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 3.1% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The data suggests inflation is moderating but remains a concern ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, where the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady despite President Trump’s calls for an emergency rate cut.
Oil Prices Drop On Russian Waiver
WTI crude oil futures fell more than 1.5% while Brent oil slipped 1% on Friday.
The decline followed the U.S. issuing a 30-day waiver for countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil and petroleum products currently stranded at sea.
Coordinated global actions, including strategic reserve releases, helped curb some inflation concerns.
Lower oil prices reduce input costs across the economy, easing pressure on consumer prices and supporting risk assets.
$3 Billion Options Gamma Trigger
According to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, BTC volatility is likely to pick up as prices near $75,000.
Options market makers are holding net “short gamma” positions worth $3 billion at the $75,000 strike.
As Bitcoin moves higher toward this region, dealer hedging flows accelerate any rally as market makers buy to rebalance their net exposure to neutral.
Almost 27,000 BTC options with $1.9 billion notional value expired today. The put/call ratio was 0.97, indicating neutral sentiment. Open interest concentrated heavily on puts between $55,000-$60,000 and calls between $75,000-$80,000.
ETF Inflows Return After Heavy Outflows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded fourth consecutive inflows of $53.8 million on March 12.
BlackRock’s IBIT recorded $46.1 million in inflows, reflecting sustained demand from large players treating BTC as a macro hedge.
If BTC holds above $70,000, it could rally toward $76,000. Perpetual futures funding rates turned deeply negative following recent dips tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, triggering a classic short squeeze.
Technical Breakout Confirmed
The Parabolic SAR at $64,457 and Supertrend at $62,551 have both flipped bullish for the first time since November.
Bitcoin successfully bounced above the 50-day moving average in the daily timeframe.
Key resistance sits at $76,000-$80,000. Bitcoin is still well below $128,000 highs, but the short-term trend has shifted.
Volume increased almost 10% in the last 24 hours, indicating rising interest among traders.
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